The Paris Agreement (PA) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been the principal multilateral treaty for cooperation among nations on greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change since its adoption in 1992.1 The Paris Agreement is the second internationally binding subsidiary agreement under the UNFCCC.2 As of October 25, 2024, 195 Parties have ratified, accepted, or acceded to the PA, including the United States.3 The PA defines a collective, long-term objective of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oC [Celsius] above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels."4 One key aspect of the PA is a single GHG mitigation framework. The PA establishes a process, with a ratchet mechanism in five-year increments, for all countries to set GHG emission mitigation pledges until the long-term goal is met. The PA refers to these periodic submissions as nationally determined contributions.5
NDCs are the primary vehicle through which Parties to the PA communicate contributions to achieving the agreement's collective goals. NDCs reflect each country's own national climate objectives and plans, including emission reduction goals, adaptation plans, and other elements. Under the terms of the PA, all NDCs must address greenhouse gas emissions reductions and all NDCs should list economy-wide absolute GHG emission reduction targets, with flexibility for developing countries to move over time toward such targets.6
Each Party that signed the PA was required to submit an Intended NDC at that time, and that document became its First NDC upon ratification of the PA. Parties are required to submit an NDC every five years, with the next due in 2025.7 This next round of NDCs are to cover the period to 2035, according to the Paris Agreement Rulebook finalized in 2021 at 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) to the UNFCCC held in Glasgow, United Kingdom.8 Subsequent NDCs are to reflect a progression of contributions to collectively over time increase ambition.9 Article 4 of the PA states that
each Party's successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party's then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.10
Parties decided that those who submitted their First NDCs without quantifiable 2030 emission targets were required to submit new (Second) NDCs by 2020.11 Others were asked to submit updated versions of their First NDCs by 2020 that reflect increasing ambition. The majority of countries met this deadline in advance of COP26.12 According to the UN Climate Change Secretariat (Secretariat), all 195 Parties to the PA have submitted First, updated First, or Second NDCs.13
When preparing NDCs, some countries attach conditions to the implementation of some measures that reflect the country's domestic context and capabilities. Further, Parties to the PA recognized that "enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions."14 Many countries requesting financial assistance include two sets of targets: targets unconditional on international support, and additional, more ambitious, targets that are conditional on international support (financial, technical, or other support). Table 1 lists every Party with an NDC target conditional on international support. As of October 24, 2024, 111 of 195 Parties have submitted NDCs or Intended NDCs (INDCs) conditional on international support.
The following NDC targets are extracted from countries' NDC submissions found at UNFCCC's NDC Registry.15 Table 1 reflects the most recent submissions found in the NDC Registry, and as such, some NDC targets in Table 1 are from a Party's Intended NDC (INDC). The table notes reflect which targets are from an INDC. In order to provide consistency throughout Table 1, the language used in Table 1 to describe the NDC targets may reflect slight modifications to the language used in the NDCs themselves. For additional information on and analysis of NDCs, see CRS Report R46945, Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pledges by Selected Countries: Nationally Determined Contributions and Net-Zero Legislation, and UNFCCC's 2023 NDC Synthesis Report.16
Table 1. Conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Submitted to the UNFCCC
Mitigation commitments are extracted from NDC text and expressed as either percent reductions from "business-as-usual" (BAU) as defined by each country, where available, or as GHG emissions estimates expressed in million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide-equivalents (CO2e), including land use and forestry changes (LULUCF), unless otherwise noted.
(Current as of October 24, 2024)
|
Country |
NDC Targets |
|
Afghanistana |
13.6% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Algeriab |
7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); up to 22% (unconditional + conditional) from BAU by 2030 |
|
Angola |
14% reduction from BAU (BAU = 108c in 2025) by 2025 (unconditional); 24% reduction from BAU by 2025 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
Several sectoral specific targets, which are conditional on international support. |
|
Azerbaijan |
40% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050 (conditional) |
|
Bangladesh |
6.73% reduction from BAU (BAU = 409 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 21.85% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Barbados |
20% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 70% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Belarus |
35% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 40% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Belize |
Several sector specific targets, all of which are conditional on international support except one (improve waste management processes to avoid emissions of up to 18 ktCO2ed per year by 2030) |
|
Benin |
20.15% reduction compared with the reference scenario over the period 2021-2030 (conditional) |
|
Bhutan |
Remain carbon-neutral (conditional) |
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
12.8% reduction from 2014 levels or 33.2% from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 17.5% reduction from 2014 levels or 36.8% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Burkina Faso |
29.42% reduction from BAU by 2030 (19.6% unconditional, 9.82% conditional) |
|
Burundi |
1.58% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 3.04% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 11% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 13% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Cabo Verde |
18% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 24% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Cambodia |
41.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Cameroon |
12% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Central African Republic |
9.03% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 11.82% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 14.64% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 24.28% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Chad |
0.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 19.3% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Comoros |
23% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Congo (Republic of) |
17.09% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 21.46% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 39.88% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 32.19% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Cook Islandse |
81% electricity generation emissions reduction from 2006 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Côte d'Ivoire |
30.41% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 98.95% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Democratic People's Republic of Korea |
16.4% reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 52% reduction by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Democratic Republic of Congo |
2% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 21% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Djiboutif |
40% reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 60% reduction by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
The Commonwealth of Dominica |
45% reduction from 2014 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Dominican Republic |
27% (7% unconditional and 20% conditional) reduction from BAU by 2030 |
|
Egypt |
Reduction of electricity emissions by 37%; oil and gas emissions by 65%; and transport emissions by 7% from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
El Salvador |
Reduction of energy sector emissions by 640 ktCO2e from BAU (BAU = 2019 levels) by 2030 (unconditional); 819 ktCO2e from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Equatorial Guinea |
35% reduction from 2019 levels by 2030 and 50% reduction from 2019 levels by 2050 (conditional) |
|
Eritrea |
Reduction of fossil fuel emissions by 12% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of fossil fuel emissions by 38.5% from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Eswatini |
5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 14% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Ethiopia |
14% reduction from BAU (BAU = 403.5 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 68.8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Fiji |
Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector by 30% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional [10%] + conditional [20%]) |
|
Gabon |
Remain carbon neutral until 2050 and beyond (unconditional); net carbon absorption of at least 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2050 (conditional) |
|
Gambia |
Reduction of forestry and energy sector emissions by 2.6% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 47.2% reduction of emissions across all sectors from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Georgia |
35% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 50%-57% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Ghana |
Reduction of 8.5 MtCO2e total emissions by 2025 and 24.6 MtCO2e total emissions by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of 16.7 MtCO2e total emissions by 2025 and 39.4 MtCO2e total emissions by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Grenada |
40% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Guatemala |
11.2% reduction from 2016 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 22.6% reduction from 2016 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Guinea |
9.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 excluding LULUCF emissions or 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (unconditional); 17% reduction from BAU by 2030 excluding LULUCF or 49% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (conditional) |
|
Guinea Bissau |
10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Haiti |
6.32% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 25.5% reduction from BAU (conditional) |
|
Honduras |
16% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Indonesia |
31.89% reduction from BAU (BAU = 2869 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 43.20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Jamaica |
25.4% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 28.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Jordan |
5% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 31% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Kazakhstan |
15% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 25% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Kiribati |
9.5% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 16.7% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 23.8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Kyrgyzstan |
16.63% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 15.97% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 36.61% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 43.62% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Lao People's Democratic Republic |
60% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); several sectoral targets that are all conditional |
|
Lebanon |
20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 31% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Lesotho |
10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Liberia |
10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 64% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Malawi |
6% reduction from BAU by 2040 (unconditional); 51% reduction from BAU by 2040 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Maldives |
26% reduction from BAU by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Mali |
Reduction of energy emissions by 31%; agriculture emissions by 25%; LULUCF emissions by 39%; and waste emissions by 31% from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Mauritania |
11% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 92% reduction from BAU by 2020 (conditional) |
|
Mauritius |
40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Mexico |
35% of GHG emissions and 51% reduction of black carbon emissions from BAU (BAU = 991 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 40% reduction of GHG from BAU by 2030 including a 70% reduction of black carbon by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Micronesia |
65% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation from 2000 levels by 2030 and 65% reduction of black carbon and methane emissions from diesel electric generation from 2000 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Moldova (Republic of) |
70% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 88% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Mongolia |
22.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 27.2% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Morocco |
18.3% reduction compared with BAU (BAU = 142 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 45.5% reduction compared with BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Mozambique |
40 MtCO2e reduction between 2020 and 2025 (conditional) |
|
Myanmar |
244.52 MtCO2e reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 414.75 MtCO2e reduction by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Namibia |
11.9 MtCO2e reduction from BAU by 2030, enhancing Namibia's sink capacity to 102.615 MtCO2e (conditional) |
|
Nepal |
Several sectoral specific targets, which are conditional on international support. |
|
Nicaragua |
Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support. |
|
Niger |
Reduction of LULUCF emissions by 12.57% from BAU by 2030; reduction of energy emissions by 10.6% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of LULUCF emissions by 22.75% from BAU by 2030; reduction of energy emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with BAU (conditional). |
|
Nigeria |
20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 47% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Niueg |
Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support. |
|
Oman |
21% reduction from BAU by 2030 (7% unconditional + 14% conditional) |
|
Pakistan |
15% reduction from BAU (BAU = 1,603 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 50% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Palauh |
22% energy sector emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2025 (conditional) |
|
Papua New Guinea |
Carbon neutrality within the energy sector by 2030; reduction of LULUCF emissions by 25% from 2015 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Panama |
Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support. |
|
Paraguay |
20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (10% unconditional + 10% conditional) |
|
Peru |
Not to exceed 208.8 in 2030 (unconditional); not to exceed 179 in 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Philippines |
2.71% reduction from BAU (3.3 Gigatons (Gt) cumulative emissions) for the period 2020-2030 (unconditional); 75% reduction from BAU (3.3 Gt cumulative emissions) for the period 2020-2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Rwanda |
16% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 38% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
61% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Saint Lucia |
7% energy sector emissions reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Samoa |
26% reduction from 2007 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
São Tomé and Príncipe |
27% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Senegal |
5% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 23.7% reduction from BAU by 2024 and 29.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Seychelles |
73.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Sierra Leone |
10% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Solomon Islands |
14% reduction from 2015 levels by 2025 and 33% reduction from 2015 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 41% reduction from 2015 levels by 2025 and 78% reduction from 2015 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional); net-zero emissions by 2050 (conditional) |
|
Somalia |
30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Sri Lanka |
14.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (4% unconditional + 10.5% conditional) |
|
State of Palestine |
17.5% reduction from BAU under "Status-quo Scenario" by 2040 (conditional); 26.6% reduction from BAU under "Independence Scenario" by 2040 (conditional) |
|
Sudan |
Fixed level emissions reductions from BAU by 2030 for the following sectors: energy (38%); forestry (45%); waste (20%) (conditional) |
|
Suriname |
Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support. Taken together, the sectors included in Suriname's NDC account for 70% of Suriname's emissions. |
|
Tajikistan |
60%-70% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 50%-60% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Tanzania |
30%-35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Thailand |
30% reduction from BAU (BAU = 555 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); up to a 40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
The Bahamas |
30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Togo |
20.51% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 50.57% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Tonga |
13% energy sector emissions reduction from 2006 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Trinidad and Tobagoi |
30% public transportation sector emissions reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 45% public transportation sector emissions reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Tunisia |
45% reduction in carbon intensity from 2010 levels by 2030 (27% unconditional + 18% conditional) |
|
Turkmenistan |
20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Tuvalu |
Tuvalu's Updated NDC includes unconditional, conditional, and aspirational contributions to reduce emissions, including 100% power (electricity) sector emissions reduction by 2030; an increase in energy efficiency in Funafuti by 30%; 60% energy sector emissions reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditionality not specified); and zero-carbon development pathway by 2050 (conditional). |
|
Uganda |
24.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (5.9% unconditional + 18.8% conditional) |
|
Uruguay |
Uruguay commits to not exceed 9,267 Gigagrams (Gg) of CO2 emissions, 818 Gg of methane emissions, and 32 Gg of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 2030, and to reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions by 10% relative to BAU (unconditional). Uruguay commits to reducing its emissions by a further 960 Gg of CO2, 61 Gg of methane, and 2 Gg of N2O, and reducing its HFC emissions by a further 5% (conditional). |
|
Venezuela |
20% reduction compared with BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Vietnam |
43.5% reduction from BAU (BAU = 928 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional + conditional) |
|
Zambia |
25% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 47% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional) |
|
Zimbabwe |
40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional) |
Source: Compiled by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) using data from UNFCCC, "NDC Registry," at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG; and World Resources Institute, Climate Watch Data, "NDC Enhancement Tracker," at https://www.climatewatchdata.org/2020-ndc-tracker.
Notes: This table includes only emission reduction targets listed in NDCs and does not include other elements of NDCs, such as supporting information that may have been updated. See individual NDC documents for a complete description of GHGs, sectors, and other data and elements associated with each countries' targets.
a. Afghanistan has submitted only an Intended NDC (INDC), submitted on November 23, 2016.
b. Algeria has submitted only an INDC, submitted on October 20, 2016.
c. Where BAU values are present throughout this table, they represent values in MtCO2e.
d. ktCO2e = metric kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
e. The Cook Islands has submitted only an INDC, submitted on September 1, 2016.
f. Djibouti has submitted only an INDC, submitted on November 11, 2016.
g. Niue has submitted only an INDC, submitted on October 28, 2016.
h. Palau has submitted only an INDC, submitted on April 22, 2016.
i. Trinidad and Tobago has submitted only an INDC, submitted on February 22, 2018 (the UNFCCC's INDC submission portal lists the submission date as October 21, 2015).
| 1. |
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York, May 9, 1992, United Nations (UN) Treaty Collection, Chapter XXVII Environment, 7 (S. Treaty Doc. No. 102-38). |
| 2. |
Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris, December 12, 2015, UN Treaty Collection, Chapter XXVII Environment, 7.d (U.S. Department of State, T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104). |
| 3. |
"Paris Agreement – Status of Ratification," UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification. |
| 4. |
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris Agreement, Article 2, para 1(a). |
| 5. |
UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 3. |
| 6. |
UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 4. |
| 7. |
UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 9. |
| 8. |
"COP26 Outcomes: Transparency and Reporting," UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-transparency-and-reporting. |
| 9. |
Article 4 of the Paris Agreement uses the term "ambition" to describe countries' emission reduction plans. The use of "ambition" throughout this report reflects this language and does not imply judgment by CRS. |
| 10. |
UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 3. |
| 11. |
UNFCCC, Decision 4/CMA.1, paras 7, 9. |
| 12. |
COP26 was scheduled to be held in 2020 and was postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| 13. |
"NDC Registry," UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG. Libya and Yemen are Signatories but not Parties to the PA. |
| 14. |
UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 5. |
| 15. |
"NDC Registry," UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG. |
| 16. |
"2023 NDC Synthesis Report," UNFCCC, 2023, at https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2023. |