τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽ
ᝄԣሊӔː*
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؇юɽኪط݁ኪӻпଣબ
ˮ҃ࢸ
ʫശ༺ɽኪזၪ̋ʱط݁ࣧኪӻпଣબ
юڿ
זڛیˋ৵ɽኪط݁ၾ͕ໆኪӻпଣબ
ᘴʩ
໋ಷီɽኪყӺၾ˾ႧԊኪӻط݁ኪӻᑺࢭબࡒӻ˴DOIj10.30390/ISC.202209_61(3).0004 145
* ൬Ը๕j͉Ӻٙ൬Ը๕މᐼЗߕശସतਜٙ౽ࢫΌଢၽᝄӺʕː
Global Taiwan Institute˸ʿߕ;ɻ໋ಷီɽኪყӺʕːCenter for In-
ternational Studies, University of St. Thomasf
Ӻཫൗ̅j͉Ӻٙਪ՜ੂБۃʊБཫൗ̅dӺཀʕʔึϞһҷਪ՜e
һҷᅵ͉ᅰٙዚึfཫൗ̅ၣѧމEvidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP, http://
egap.org/, the project’s registration link is http://egap.org/content/psychology-self-defense-
and-self-determination) ձ Open Science Foundation (OSF, http://osf.io/, the project’s regis-
tration link is https://osf.io/6h7d8)f
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ᚤfˈՉ݊ίࠦ࿁̙ঐٙՇ֦ላرً߉ɨdə༆ၽᝄ͏ٙІҢԣሊจ
ᗴdၾτΌࢹࢹᗫf್ϾdνО༆ᙑၽᝄ͏ІҢԣሊӔːࢨٙ
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ϓމყᗫٙءೊᓃfίτΌӺsecurity studiesٙᗫীሞʕdࡈ
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ึʕd০࿁ၽᝄ͏࿁ԣၾЪจᗴٙઞীһ੬ϓࠠމᓃ༑ᕚʘɓf1 ڐ
1 ԷνjH. R. McMaster and Matt Pottinger, “Cold War II{Just How Dangerous Is China?”
Hoover Institution, 2021/04/13fhttps://www.hoover.org/research/cold-war-ii-just-how-
dangerous-chinadݟቡࣛගj2021/06/26f
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Taiwan National Security Surveyʕd༔ਪ͏ίՇ֦ΪၽዹϾˏ೯
نرًɨึਂޟჿdස23%̸̛ٙ͏ΫᏐᗴจٜટࠏe݊٫א˕݁ٙܵ
ִഃ͍ٜࠦટΫᏐࠏԫላٙ߉Ϋഈf2 Шίཞϋ2018d͟ၽᝄ͏˴ਿږึ
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ˮ҃ࢸ2017ଣəڐϋԸኪஔӺʕ࿁ၽᝄ͏݊щᗴจЪٙ͏จ
ሜݟdɰ೯ତ͏จሜݟഐ؈ήʱi˕ܵЪٙˢԷ௰৷̙༺Ց82%d̈
ତί2015ϋ˰ޢᄆ࠽ᝈሜݟThe World Value Survey4dϾ˕ܓܵ௰Эۆٙ
ٙࠑۃ݊ၽᝄτΌሜݟf್dʔΝٙ͏จሜݟ͟ੂБ˙όeੂБࣛ
ගeɗЇਪᕚાޫࠑϞהʔΝdה˸ഐ؈̙ঐɽࢬࢰf͏வᅵఊॱٙ
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ʥცࠅίจၽᝄ͏ί͏จሜݟ༁ڌ༺̈ٙЪจᗴճkୋɓdуԴҢʊ
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ᗫ݁ഄdԷνႴሥഄଫPorcupine Strategyเ˻ᆀ 2009d5 ɰఱ݊ί
2 ༟ࣘԸ๕jhttps://sites.duke.edu/pass/data/fݟቡࣛගj2019/03/15f
3 “Taiwanese people willing to fight for democracy: surveys.” Focus Taiwanfhttp://focustai-
wan.tw/news/aipl/201804190036.aspxdݟቡࣛගj2019/03/15f
4 ༟ࣘԸ๕jhttps://srda.sinica.edu.tw/datasearch_detail.php?id=1220dݟቡࣛගj
2019/03/18f
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ᝄԣሊӔː*
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ˮ҃ࢸ
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໋ಷီɽኪყӺၾ˾ႧԊኪӻط݁ኪӻᑺࢭબࡒӻ˴DOIj10.30390/ISC.202209_61(3).0004 145
* ൬Ը๕j͉Ӻٙ൬Ը๕މᐼЗߕശସतਜٙ౽ࢫΌଢၽᝄӺʕː
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ternational Studies, University of St. Thomasf
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egap.org/, the project’s registration link is http://egap.org/content/psychology-self-defense-
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Hoover Institution, 2021/04/13fhttps://www.hoover.org/research/cold-war-ii-just-how-
dangerous-chinadݟቡࣛගj2021/06/26f
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2 ༟ࣘԸ๕jhttps://sites.duke.edu/pass/data/fݟቡࣛගj2019/03/15f
3 “Taiwanese people willing to fight for democracy: surveys.” Focus Taiwanfhttp://focustai-
wan.tw/news/aipl/201804190036.aspxdݟቡࣛගj2019/03/15f
4 ༟ࣘԸ๕jhttps://srda.sinica.edu.tw/datasearch_detail.php?id=1220dݟቡࣛගj
2019/03/18f
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ОᆑίᅂᚤΪމසϞՇࡈྼ᜕ՐዧdϾ˲ேʔᜑഹf
156cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
ϞᏍпkί͉΅ਪ՜ʕdΫഈၾʱ̺رًʱй݊jڢ੬ϞᏍп20.0%eϞԬ
Ꮝп42.4%eʔ˄ϞᏍп22.9%eڢ੬ӚᏍп12.4%e༪ഈ2.2%fҢࡁਗ਼ɪࠑ4
ࡈΫഈʱйᇜᇁމ+2d+1d–1dၾ–2d༪ഈۆᇜᇁމ0f
ୋɚʱdਪ՜ᕚͦ༔ਪ࿁жٙɛίжཀʕၾɪॴʝਗ᜕ٙj
ԸႭdሗਪઆႩމίҘಂගၾၾɪॴא֜ࠏ༟ଉɻٙ֜ஈ᜕d
ɽεމ͍ࠦࠋאࠦkί͉΅ਪ՜ʕdΫഈၾʱ̺رًʱй݊jɽεމ͍ࠦ
᜕25.7%e᜕͍ࠦଫεࠦࠋ᜕37.1%eࠦࠋ᜕ଫε᜕͍ࠦ27.1%e
ɽεࠦࠋމ᜕8.0%e༪ഈ2.0%fҢࡁਗ਼ɪࠑ4ࡈΫഈʱйᇜᇁމ+2d+1d
–1dၾ–2d༪ഈۆᇜᇁމ0f
ୋɧʱdਪ՜༔ਪהϞཀжٙɛሗਪઆٙהж၇މОkίҢ
ٙࡁਪ՜ʕdϞ490Зաஞ٫ΫഈϞжҘ᜕ٙd12 Չʕ11%މқᗴҘe
87%މ່ਕҘe1.2%މ12˂̂жe7.6%މಁ˾ҘfϾж၇ٙʱ̺ʱйމ
ऎࠏ5.5%eࠏ̍ўᑌාeܝ௪67.3%eࠏ٤10.4%eኮж8.0%eऎࠏ
ඟ5.7%̤̮ᒔϞՉ˼ࡈɛ෬ഈj̡˿0.2%eऎԚ2.0%d˸ʿ༪ഈ
0.8%dɪࠑɧ٫Ϊމᅵ͉ᅰཀˇdΪϤԨӚϞॶɝܝᚃʱؓdϾಁ˾ҘۆΪ
މேӚϞ෬ᄳж၇ʱ̺dɰίܝᚃ༟ࣘʱؓʕмৰfίᇜᇁࣛdҢࡁਗ਼௰
εɛٙࠏᇜᇁމ0Ъމਞଡ଼dՉቱࠏ၇ऎࠏeࠏ٤eኮжeऎࠏ
ඟޫʱй˸ൈᏝᜊᅰٙ˙όᇜᇁމ1f̤̮dɰίΫᓥᅼۨʕ׳ɝқᗴҘᇜ
ᇁމ1ਂމછՓf
வɧɽࠦΣٙணࠇd݊Ҏૐ̙˸ϗණՑԑεʔΝٙၽᝄཀжҘաஞ٫
ٙж᜕fᔊఊࠑࠠҢࡁซࠅ᜕ᗇٙ3ࡈணjd͉Ӻίจ݊ٙж
᜕ၾЪ˕ܵʘගٙᗫڷdΪϤҢࡁҎૐ̙˸ٜટඎ͏Ⴉމжהኪ݊
щ࿁ЪϞᏍпfୋɚdʔΝࠏٙ၇̙ঐึϞҁΌʔΝٙж᜕ձᄆ࠽ᝈׂ
ҖϓdΪהމաٙᇖ˙όԨʔΝfୋɧdϽᅇՑࠏඟගᄴॴʱٙ˖ʷၾ
̀ࠅdϾ͏жٙชա̙ঐٜટԸІίжཀʕၾɪॴٙʝਗdה˸
வࡈʝਗλᕸ̙ঐɰึᅂᚤՑ͏࿁ྼყЪٙ˕ܵܓfᒱ್வɧࡈᄴࠦ
אʥ್ʔҁ௪dШЇˇவ3ࡈᕚͦ͏Ϋഈٙࣛʱৣޫၑѩʴ˲ʔึ˄ཀ
12 ̤̮511ЗӚϞཀжٙաஞ٫d݊ۆ༔ਪ̤̮ɓӻΐٙਪᕚdਗ਼˚ܝᔳӺf
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc157
ණʕd˾ڌҢࡁԶٙᜊᅰٙᆽԶԑɽ٤ٙගԸ࣍ࣉՑʔΝၽᝄ͏ٙʔ
Νж᜕dܝᚃӺ̙˸ൖӺცࠅᘱᚃᄣʔΝࠦΣٙж᜕ሜݟf
௰ܝdίછՓᜊᅰcontrol variableɪd͉˖ॶආط݁ኪʕ੬Ԉ̙ٙঐ
ᅂᚤՑ͏ط݁࿒ٙܓᜊᅰdܼ̍݁ᙣႩΝعᔝၾعၠٙൈᏝᜊᅰe
ᘬ̮ɛމ1Չቱމ0eϋᙧeԃܓ1~5eࡈɛ˜ϗɝ1~5e
˸ʿԱᜊᅰڋ2ࡈᎇዚʱৣٙൈᏝᜊᅰ༉Ԉൗ໔11fவԬᜊᅰΝࣛɰ݊
ۃҢࡁՑٙdͦۃਬɓٙਖ਼ژীሞၽᝄ͏ن˕ٙܵӺYeh and Wu
2021ʕԴٙ͜ᜊᅰf΅༟ߠٙࣘ౻ᜊᅰ̙Ԉڌ2f
ڌ2cਪ՜աஞߠ٫౻ᜊᅰ
й Ӳ
ɾ543 (54.3%)
458 (45.8%)
ϋᙧ 20~29
30~39
40~49
50~59
60˸ɪ184 (18.4%)
326 (32.6%)
274 (27.4%)
150 (15.0%)
65 (6.5%)
ԃܓ ʃኪא˸ɨ
ڋʕ
৷ʕ
̬Ҧɚਖ਼
ɽኪ˸ɪ3 (0.3%)
4 (0.4%)
124 (12.4%)
182 (18.2%)
688 (68.8%)
˜ϗɝ NTD $20,000˸ɨ
$20,001~$50,000
$50,001~$80,000
$80,001~$150,000
$150,001˸ɪ45 (4.5%)
223 (22.3%)
347 (34.7%)
286 (28.6%)
90 (9.0%)
݁ᙣႩΝ عᔝ
عၠ
ೌ394 (39.4%)
483 (48.3%)
124 (12.4%)
ᘬ ˨ፋމ̮ɛ
˨ፋڢ̮ɛ144 (14.4%)
857 (85.7%)
158cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
肆、資料分析:三大面向與自我防衛決心
͉˖ٜટԴ͜ᇞᓥᅼۨПࠇࡈІᜊᅰ࿁Աᜊᅰிϓٙᅂᚤdவᅵਂ
̙ٙͦ݊ٙ˸છՓՉ˼ᆑίᜊᅰٙᅂᚤd˸ʿϽᅇՑԱᜊᅰٙ፯ධ൴ཀ10d̙
˸ЪஹᚃᜊᅰԸஈଣfᓥᅼۨഐڌ؈3f
dҢࡁ೯ତɛࡁ࿁жהኪٙϞ͜ܓ൙Пdਗ਼ᜑഹᅂᚤɪఙٙ
จᗴfίᅼۨɓӚϞછՓᜊᅰeᅼ̬ۨɧ၇ࠦΣɓৎආБᓥe˸ʿ
ᅼۨʞɧ၇ࠦΣ̋ɪછՓᜊᅰ༁dޫᜑͪə͉˖ٙୋɓࡈӺண݊ϓͭ
ٙ{жהࣛኪ࿁ɪఙٙϞ͜ܓ{ᜑഹήᅂᚤəҢ͏ІҢԣሊٙจ
ᗴf̻ѩϾԊd͏ႩމжהኪٙϞ͜ܓӊɪʺ1ʱ–2Ї+2ʱdɽߒ
ึί0Ї10ʱٙІҢԣሊจᗴ༁ɪʺ0.6ʱfவࡈഐ؈͍֛ٵٙࠦəࠏᇖٙ
ᄆ࠽jν͏ίжҘٙಂගdᆽྼኪ୦Ցə࿁ɪఙϞٝٙ͜ᗆၾҦ
ஔdԟவᅵٙᇖఱ̙˸৷ɛІҢԣሊٙӔːfШΝᅵήdν͏ж
Ҙಂගהኪᜫ͏ᙂ࿁ɪఙ૩ೌᏍпdԟ፹ႬٙᇖˀϾึࠥЭ͏ІҢ
ԣሊٙӔːf̤ɓ˙ࠦdவ༁ίᅰࡈᅼۨ༁ࠦேяତٙᖢ֛͍ٙᗫഐ؈dɰ
ගટႭəҢࡁਪ՜աஞ٫ίΫഈІҢԣሊӔːਪᕚࣛʔҁΌ٤݊ɹႭͣ༑d
Ͼܘ݊Ϟ̙ঐॆٙึཀ᜕̘ԸਂଣࠇၑணІҢԣሊӔːே݊ɛٙࡁʔ
ྼɹ᎘וፕdԟҢࡁʔᏐ༈ᖢ֛ٙҬՑவ༁աϞࣖ༧ᗴจ͂˽ʘග͍ٙᗫ
f
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc159ڌ3cᇞᓥᅼۨOLSʱؓഐ؈jІҢԣሊจᗴ
ᅼۨɓ ᅼۨɚ ᅼۨɧ ᅼ̬ۨ ᅼۨʞ
Іᜊᅰᓥ
ڷᅰᓥ
ڷᅰᓥ
ڷᅰᅺ
Ⴌࢨᓥ
ڷᅰᅺ
Ⴌࢨᓥ
ڷᅰᅺ
Ⴌࢨᓥ
ڷᅰᅺ
Ⴌࢨ
ऎࠏ 0.181 (0.790) 0.311 (0.792) 0.237 (0.744)
ࠏ٤ 1.248 (0.591)* 1.530 (0.591)** 1.282 (0.562)*
ኮж 0.486 (0.664) 0.562 (0.658) 0.376 (0.620)
ऎ 0.516 (0.773) 0.665 (0.765) 0.155 (0.734)
הኪϞᏍп 0.532(0.131)*** 0.667 (0.144)***0.730 (0.139)***
ɪॴ࿒ܓ 0.059(0.135) -0.183(0.147) -0.023(0.141)
қᗴҘ -0.960(0.562) -1.220(0.570)* -0.965(0.555)
Չ˼ࡈɛߠ
౻ᜊᅰ ϞછՓϞછՓ
੬ᅰ 4.421(0.185)***4.614(0.192)***4.588 (0.210)***4.345 (0.228)***2.588 (1.381)
R-squared 0.034 0.0004 0.014 0.060 0.193
Ⴍj ᜑഹ˥ * < 0.05e** < 0.01e*** < 0.001fהࠏϞᅼٙۨЪމਞଡ଼fᅼۨʞછՓə˸ɨᜊᅰjᔝᐄ˕٫ܵeၠᐄ
˕٫ܵeᘬeϋᙧeၽᝄႩΝeԃܓeϗɝe݊ࠏߕщп̨e݊щΪ܁̺ၽዹϾˏ೯نՇ၇ઋྤાࠑfШމ
əື٤ගdʔίʫ˖༉ࠑf
160cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
ʔཀdίᅼۨɚeᅼ̬ۨe˸ʿᅼۨʞ༁ࠦdҢࡁӚϞ೯ତၾɪॴஈ
᜕༧ІҢԣሊӔːʘගٙᗫdה˸ӺணɚԨӚϞϓͭfவࡈഐ؈ხ˿
͉˖Ъࡁ٫ᜓடfڗܘɓࣛݬග˸ԸdҢҘଭӲίীሞж᜕ࣛd੬੬
ึʝʱԮ༾Ց၇ʔΥଣ֜ڗٙdޟЇɰשϓəᗫཥᅂజѓफڗdҪ
ࠏඟ֜ڗˢᏝϓʔ̙ଣఏٙɛdί1987ϋࡉࣛٙˏৎəʔʃٙᚤdᒔϞλ
ཥᅂᚃЪfШఱ͉˖ٙաஞ٫e̙˸༺ϓΌ60๋˸ɨ͏൨ڐΌ˾ڌ
ٙᅵ͉ԸႭdೌሞίжಂගၾ֜ڗஈፄ٫אݻᗫڷెΕdேӚϞᅂᚤՑ
ɓ͇ၽऎɝٙࣛنІҢԣሊӔːdה˸̙પሞၾٙ֜ڗஈཀၾ᜕d
Ԩʔίၽᝄ͏ܠϽၾкᓙԣሊঐɢٙϽඎʘʕf
ୋɧdίжಂගίʔΝࠏٙ၇ҘdϞᅂᚤՑၽᝄ͏ٙІҢԣሊӔː
kίᅼۨɧeᅼ̬ۨe˸ʿᅼۨʞdேՑɓᅵٙʱؓഐ؈j̻ѩϾԊdಀ
ίࠏ٤աٙ͏dึ༰Չ˼ࠏ၇աٙ͏Ϟһ৷ٙІҢԣሊٙӔːf
ί0Ց10ʱٙІҢԣሊӔːʕdಀίࠏ٤աٙ͏̻ѩϾԊึ༰ί
ࠏաٙ͏ε̈1.2ʱڌ3dᅼۨʞٙІҢԣሊӔːdவᅵٙഐ؈˕ܵҢ
ٙࡁணɧdуʔΝࠏ၇ʘගึϞࢨהମf್ϾdމОึϞவᅵࠏٙ၇ࢨମd
͉˖ԨӚϞɓࡈঐ˖ᘠʕҬՑٙΥଣணdה˸݊ɓࡈϞܝܙᚃᘱᚃᔳٙ
ਪᕚfίཀ̘ٙӺʕdಀ೯ତʔΝࠏ၇֜ࠏٙ࿁༸ᅃᄆࠠٙ࠽ൖܓϞה
ʔΝۊӱeඡወറ 2010eࠠൖ˙ΣɰϞהʔΝᄎॉഃ 2010d
Ш݊வԬΪ९νОᅂᚤՑІҢԣሊӔːdʥϞܙ˚ܝӺઞীfଭd͉˖ʊ
ீཀᓥᅼ̤̮ۨછՓəІҢ൙ПהٙኪϞ͜ܓ˸ʿ࿁ɪॴٙ൙ᄆഃ࿒
ܓdΪϤҢאࡁ̙˸રৰ݊ʔΝࠏ၇ʫהኪࢨٙମdɰ̙˸રৰɪॴ၍ଣࠬ
ࢨٙࣸମdᜑ್ᒔϞՉ˼Ϊ९༆ᙑІҢԣሊӔːίʔΝࠏ၇ගࢨٙମf
伍、進一步分析:誰覺得軍事訓練有用?
ίɪɓʱٙ༟ࣘʱؓʕdҢࡁ೯ତࠏ၇༧ࠏԫᇖϞ͜ܓᜑഹήᅂᚤ
ՑၽᝄҘӲٙІҢԣሊӔːf್ϾdՑࡳֵ݊ɓʱࠏٙԫᇖϞ͜kவ၇Ϟ
ٙ͜ชᙂ݊щϞաՑՉ˼ࡈɛߠ౻ᜊᅰ٫אจᗆҖ࿒ٙᅂᚤkνᙂࠏԫ
ᇖϞ͜ၾщՉྼ݊աՑՉ˼ࡈɛߠ౻ᜊᅰٙʍᓔdԟҢࡁఱᗭ˸ܔͭৎІᜊᅰ
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc161
ၾԱᜊᅰʘගٙᗫڷf
މə᜕ᗇவࡈਪᕚdҢࡁΎϣԴ͜ᇞᓥᅼۨdШவϣҪᙂࠏԫ
ᇖ࿁ɪఙϞᏍпЪމԱᜊᅰdϾҪࠏ၇ၾࡈɛߠ౻ᜊᅰЪ݊ІᜊᅰdϾ
ᓥഐ؈νڌ4הͪf
ڌ4̈ତəڢ੬ε୕ࠇʔᜑഹeШྼਕɪՈϞࠅࠠจ່ٙഐ؈fୋɓdڌ4
༁ٙࠏࡈ၇ʘගԨӚϞᜑഹࢨମdจፗഹҢ͏ᙂࠏԫᇖϞ͜ၾщٙ
Ϊ९dԨʔ݊ԸІפהՑʔΝࠏ၇ٙᇝ݂fୋɚd݁ᙣႩΝԨʔᜑഹdϾ˲
̮ᘬɰԨʔᜑഹdவ˾ڌҢ͏ίܠϽהաՑࠏԫᇖՑֵ࿁ɪఙϞ
ӚϞᏍпࣛdːʕࠇၑٙ˙όԨʔ੭Ϟ݁ᙣЍdவ˾ڌəҢ͏ίܠϽவ
Ԓնҹᗫࠠٙɽᙄᕚࣛd݊ਿϓ͉ࣖूϾڢ໊ႩΝίܠϽٙdΝࣛɰ
จፗഹdࠏԫᇖϞ͜ၾщ݊ɓࡈ༨ᙣࠅࠠٙݼᙄᕚdவࡈʔᜑഹɰΎϣᗇྼ
əவࡈᕚͦٙʫܓࣖfୋɧdԃܓၾϗɝΝᅵ݊ʔᜑഹٙdவจፗഹၽ
ᝄ͏ᙂࠏԫᇖϞ͜ၾщd̙ঐၾ͏ٙ༟ৃ՟אႩٝ၇ᙄᕚٙܓ
͜ԃܓԸ˾ڌೌᗫdϾ݊Չ˼Ϊ९f̤ɓ˙ࠦdϗɝɰ˾ڌə͏ኹ
Ϟٙ༟ପ˸ʿ̙ঐՑ̮ٙ༟๕ၾ̙ঐdШ୕ࠇΝᅵᜑͪϗɝၾ͏Ⴉٝ
ՑࠏԫᇖϞ͜ၾщӚϞᜑഹᗫڷdவΎϣᜑͪə͏ίΫഈࠏԫᇖ݊щϞ
ࣛ͜dԨʔ੭ϞࡈɛՉ˼ᄴܠٙࠦϽdϾᆽྼˢ༰̙ঐ݊ίႩॆܠϽಀࠏ
הኪ݊щॆٙ࿁͂˽ϞᏍпf
ڌ4ʕਬɓٙᜑഹഐ؈dɰ݊Ъࡁ٫ᙂ௰Ϟจ່ٙʱdఱࠏ݊ԫ
ᇖϞ͜ၾщၾաஞ٫ϋᙧʘගᜑഹ͍ٙᗫjҢϋߏ൳ٙڗҘӲd̻ѩϾ
Ԋ൳ᙂϋהաࠏٙԫᇖ࿁ɪఙϞᏍпfνҢࡁఊॱԴ͜ΐஹڌ
Ըٙ༑dί20Ї29๋ٙϋᙧᄴʕdᙂࠏԫᇖӚϞٙ͜ˢԷމ69%dᙂ
Ϟٙ͜ˢԷމ31%fШί50Ї59๋ٙϋᙧᄴʕdᙂࠏԫᇖӚϞٙ͜ˢԷމ
18%dᙂϞٙ͜ˢԷމ82%d˰˾ʘගࢨٙମᜑf
νաᇖٙϋߏԸܠϽٙ༑dவᅵٙٙʱ̺ഐڢ݊؈੬༼ˀٜᙂٙd
Ϊމஷ੬ᕎኪ୦אᇖࣛٙග൳ɮdଣᏐ൳ᙂϋהٙኪʊʔᅯԴ͜dცࠅ
ᄣ̋อٝᗆfШίࠏԫᇖவɓ෯dҢٙ͏จሜݟഐ݊؈ᜑͪաϋჀɛ
൳ᙂהኪ࿁ɪఙೌ͜dˀϾ݊ϋߏ༰ڗeʊᕎකܝ௪ࠏɛ༟ڗٙࣸቁd
ึᙂϋաՑࠏٙԫᇖ̙݊˸ɪఙٙf
162cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
ڌ4cᇞᓥᅼۨOLSʱؓഐ؈jࠏԫᇖϞ͜ܓ
ᅼۨɓ ᅼۨɚ
Іᜊᅰ ᓥڷᅰᅺႬࢨᓥڷᅰᅺႬࢨ
ऎࠏ- 0.322 (0.279) -0.242 (0.266)
ࠏ٤- 0.219 (0.208) -0.195 (0.201)
ኮж 0.114 (0.232) 0.071 (0.222)
ऎ -0.220 (0.269) -0.053 (0.222)
қᗴҘ 0.491 (0.198)***
ၽᝄႩΝ -0.077 (0.129)
عᔝ 0.435 (0.207)**
عၠ 0.199 (0.205)
̮- 0.382 (0.541)
ϋᙧ 0.312 (0.054)***
ԃܓ- 0.116 (0.081)
ϗɝ 0.012 (0.062)
੬ᅰ 0.399*** (0.075) -0.491 (0.495)
R-squared 0.0007 0.127
Ⴍj ᜑഹ˥ * < 0.05e** < 0.01e*** < 0.001fהࠏϞᅼٙۨЪމਞଡ଼fᅼۨʞ
ᕘ̮છՓə˸ɨᜊᅰj݊ࠏߕщп̨e݊щΪ܁̺ၽዹϾˏ೯نՇ၇ઋྤાࠑf
Шމəື٤ගd˲ޫʔᜑഹdʔίʫ˖༉ࠑf
ί༟ࣘၾޫࠦوϞٙࠢઋرɨdഅ٫ೌจආɝڐϋԸࠏԫҷࠧၾࠏԫᇖ
Ϟ͜ܓʘගٙઞীdଭఊɓɓϣ͏ሜ༟ࣘɰೌجਜʱவࡈʱ̺݊ԸІ
˰˾ࣖᏐCohort Effectᒔ݊͛նಂࣖᏐLife-cycle EffectfШν
ၽᝄ͏൳ᙂࠏԫᇖϞ͜൳ϞІҢԣሊٙӔːdϾவࠏԫᇖϞ͜ࡡٙΪ
݊ԸІʔΝϋᙧᄴdԟאɨɓӉӺ˙Σఱ݊ʔΝϋᙧᄴהաࠏٙԫᇖ
݊щϞʔΝfԷνdϞɓࡈ̙ঐٙ༆ᙑ˙ό݊dί͏˴ʷʘۃၾʘܝdҘཀ
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc163
ה੶ሜٙᄆ࠽ึʔ˄ΝdϞ̙ঐί͏˴ʷʘۃึˢ༰੶ሜܛߏ˸ʿᅮҢʘ
ʱdϾί͏˴ʷʘۆܝึˢ༰੶ሜɛʷᇖf13 אவɰึ༧वᐄࣛගڗ
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пҳɝఙٙdϾίཀ̘ٙжҘࣛගˢତίᒔܘڗࠅεf್வᒔϞܙһ
ආɓӉٙӺʱؓdவԬӺண݊ɨɓࡈӺٙᙄᕚf
陸、結果與討論
͉˖˴ࠅீཀ͏จሜٙݟ༟ࣘdԸяତ̈τΌӺʕɓࠦٙࠅࠠࡈΣj
ࡈй͏ٙ࿒ܓၾྼყ݁ഄʘගٙஹഐfҢࡁ˴ࠅซΫഈٙਪᕚ݊jҘ᜕
݊щึᅂᚤၽᝄ͏ϞІҢԣሊٙӔːkίவᇐ˖ʕdҢࡁீཀɓ΅ਪ՜ሜ
ٙݟ༟ࣘԸઞীɧࡈʔΝٙж᜕ࠦΣ࿁ၽᝄ͏ІҢԣሊӔːٙᅂᚤf
ഐ؈ᜑͪdжࠏٙ၇e˸ʿжࣛաࠏԫᇖٙϞ͜ܓdޫึᜑഹٙᅂᚤ
ၽᝄ͏ٙІҢԣሊӔːf್Ͼdၾٙ֜ڗஈ᜕ۆ࿁ԣሊӔːೌᅂᚤf
̤ɓ˙ࠦd͉˖͵Զᕘ̮ᗇኽd೯ତҢ͏ᙂաࠏԫᇖϞ͜ၾщdၾ
ࡈɛ݁ᙣא̈͛ೌᗫdШၾࡈɛٙϋᙧᄴϞʲᗫfίၽऎᙄᕚڐԸနᜑ
ഹٙყʷᒈැʕ፠׀ 2021; Mazza 2021dҢࡁҎૐவᅵٙӺ
ঐᜫၽ݁ٙߕഄޢʿኪஔޢd˸ʿО࿁வࡈᙄᕚชጳሳٙɛd࿁ၽᝄٙ
͏จ˸ʿԣሊจᗴϞһආɓӉٙႩᗆf
ᒱ್͉˖ீཀ͏ሜٙ˙όdరҬ̈ж᜕νОᅂᚤІҢԣሊٙจᗴdШ
Ϊމ͉ϣ͏ሜੂБఊЗPollcracyLab݊મ͜ၣ༩͏ሜdίஷۆʷ͉˖Ӻٙഐ
ࡉࣛٙ؈dცࠅʃːБԫf࣬ኽࣈںശ2013ٙӺdவഅ༟ࢫࣘί60๋
˸ɨٙၽᝄ͏ʕ݊ՈϞΌ˾ٙڌi౬Ԋʘdν؈Ңࡁίীሞ൴ཀ60๋ٙ
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ݟˢdΪމΫഈٙ˙όʔΝdאᒔ݊ึପ͛ԬࢨٙମfவʱۆϞܙ͊
ԸҢࡁ̙˸ீཀཥ༑͏ሜΎϣආБሜݟd˙̙݊ٝщΪމ͏ሜٙ˙جϾପ͛
ᜑഹࢨٙମfᔊఊԸႭdҢࡁᒱ್࿁Ңٙࡁ೯ତഐ؈ϞڦːdШҢࡁʥ್Ⴉމ
13 तйชᑽਛΤᄲݟɛה̈ԸٙীሞจԈf
164cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
ᛘ٫ί༕ᙑҢٙࡁഐሞࣛdცࠅε̋ءจf
͉˖ٙ೯ତ࿁Ң່ਕҘࠏԫᇖၾɛ࿁݊щ˕ڭܵሊІʉٙ͏
ሜӺϞɧධ݁ഄจԈfdʔΝࠏ၇ٙᇖ˙όึᜑഹٙҷᜊவԬաཀ່
ਕҘ͏ٙ࿒ܓfᒱ್ႭʔΝࠏ၇ί݊אࣛ௪הݬࣛҲစٙԉЍʔΝdШ
͉˖೯ତٙࠏ٤ᇖᜑഹήᄣ੶͏ІҢԣሊٙӔːfவא˾ڌഹٙࠏ٤
ᇖᅼόϞ࠽Չ˼ࠏ၇ٙجࣖʱd͊ԸٙӺא̙˸ίவᓃɪආБһଉܓ
ٙઞীf
Չɚd່ਕҘίཀ̘੬މɛ༖षٙਪᕚdʔ˶່݊ਕҘई൬ɛࣛٙගd
ַႬӲɛίਿᓾא৷ഃԃഐҼٙܝఱᔖࣛගdԨಯЭᐼٙ͛ପ
ɢfШ͉˖೯ତdν؈່ਕҘࠏٙԫᇖᜫҘӲᙂ༈ᇖ̙˸Ϟٙࣖᄣආ
ɛٙЪঐɢdԨ˲ගટήʺɛІҢԣሊٙจᗴdۆ່ਕҘ࿁ၪᚐၽऎٙ
τΌԸႭdఱՈ௪Չᅂᚤɢf್dவʱɰ̘̀ᝈ࿀ཀ່̘ٙਕҘ݊щᜫ
εᅰҘӲேชՑவԬᇖ̙˸ʺЪࣖٙࣛঐdவᒔცࠅһεᗫٙӺf
ୋɧdၽऎτΌٙਪᕚdίߕʕᗫڷආɝᘩنً࿒ࣛٙගᓃdᜑत
йࠅࠠfɛІҢԣሊٙจᗴʔ၍࿁ၽᝄ٫א࿁ၽᝄٙຑʾԸႭdே݊ɓࡈ
ڢ੬ܸٙࠅࠠᅺfཀ̘dߕٙ౽ޢࢫe݁ഄਸ਼εᗫၽऎࠏԫઋැٙীሞ
ʕd੬੬ึίীሞၽᝄࠏٙ௪ঐඎࣛሔՑၽᝄʫІҢԣሊจᗴཀЭٙဲ
ᅇd14 வܘ̙ঐึΪϤᅂᚤୋɧ˙࿁Ңࠏԫ౪пٙ࿒ܓf͉˖ீཀӺ
жҘ᜕ٙၾІҢԣሊจᗴٙᗫᑌdరҬνОᄣ̋ɛڭሊٙจᗴf
͊ԸவᗳٙۨӺேϞ݁ٙࠅࠠܘഄจ່dν݁؈ഄՓ٫֛ঐϽඎவԬᅂᚤ
ІҢԣሊจᗴٙΪ९dԟһঐપ̈ʔΝ݁ٙഄd˸ᄣආ͏ڭሊٙจ
ᗴfᑘԷԸႭdίତίމಂϞٙࠢҘӲᇖཀdԣᏐһආɓӉə༆ʡ
ჿᅵٙᇖึᜫҘӲᙂϞᏍпdආϾᜫաཀࠏԫᇖٙ͏һϞІҢԣሊၽ
14 ԷνɓԬᗫ͏ሜ٫אᗫอၲٙীሞj
Peter Enav. “Taiwanese Youth Losing Appetite for Fighting China.” 2011/12/1fhttps://
apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-5e54f6f27cd44d20bd968bb03a46fe0cdݟቡࣛගj
2021/08/15f
David Pierson and Ralph Jennings. “To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan needs a stronger
army.” 2021/10/6fhttps://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/china-taiwan-
military-servicedݟቡࣛගj2021/08/15f
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc165
ᝄٙӔːfၾϤΝࣛdʔΝࠏٙ၇ίІҢԣሊจᗴɪהପ͛ࢨٙମdՑֵՉߠ
ࡡٙܝଣމОdί݁ഄਸ਼ɪࠦᏐ༈ਂһ༉ٙӺၾীሞdආϾ̙˸ɽషʺ
ࠏࡈ၇ІҢԣሊၽᝄٙӔːf
ϗj110ϋ8˜16˚dટաj111ϋ1˜11˚
166cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
Security Studies Towards Individuals’ Attitude:
Military Experience and Support for Self-
Defense in Taiwan
Fang-Yu Chen
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University, Taiwan
Austin Horng-En Wang
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Charles K.S. Wu
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, University of
South Alabama
Yao-Yuan Yeh
Endowed Chair in International Studies, Chair of International Studies & Modern Lan-
guages, and Chair of Political Science, University of St. Thomas, Houston.
Abstract
What explains Taiwanese citizens’ determination of self-defense? To
date, few studies touch upon this issue. We argue that one’s military service
experience is an important factor for studying citizens’ willingness to fight and
hypothesize that positive experience could be conducive to higher willingness
for self-defense as the citizens feel they have the capabilities and preparations
for a conflict. We operationalize military service into three dimensions: military
branch, evaluation of usefulness of military trainings, and interactions with
units’ senior officers. Using an original online survey conducted by National
Chengchi University in July 2018, we find: (1) military branch matters-serving
τΌӺࡈٙʷjࡈɛж᜕νОᅂᚤၽᝄԣሊӔːc167
in the Air Force leads to higher determination, and (2) positive evaluations
of the military training lead to higher determination. Additionally, we also
find that the older generations believe that military trainings are effective for
real conflicts. Based on the empirical findings, we propose several policy
suggestions.
Keywords: Security Studies, determination for self-defense, civil-military relations,
military experience, mandatory military service
168cਪᕚၾӺcୋ61՜ୋ3ಂ
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