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Between Washington and Beijing: How Europe fits into US-China strategic competition

Summary

Six experts offer insights into the complexities shaping U.S.-EU-China triangular dynamics at a moment of global realignment.

Full Text

The Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies and skepticism toward traditional security alliances have placed considerable pressure on relations between the United States and the European Union (EU).

Meanwhile, U.S.-China strategic competition remains sharp.

How will these twin dynamics across the Atlantic and Pacific interact with each other?

Will it be possible for transatlantic coordination on China to deepen?

Or will transatlantic divisions and differing threat perceptions of China push America and Europe in different directions on China?

To explore these challenges, the Brookings Global China Project convened six foreign policy experts with diverse areas of expertise, including on China, Europe, national security, and economic issues.

Their written exchange addresses three central questions:

What should the United States seek or expect from Europe in the context of its strategic competition with China?

Why is China adopting a harder line toward Europe amid visible transatlantic rifts, and what does Beijing hope to achieve in its engagement with the continent?

How is the European Union navigating its position between Washington and Beijing, and what kind of U.S.-EU-China relationship does Brussels believe best serves Europe’s long-term interests?

Their insights offer a timely window into the complexities—and strategic choices—shaping U.S.-EU-China triangular dynamics at a moment of global realignment.

Their answers follow below:

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Question 1

Wants and expectations

What should the United States want or expect from Europe in relation to competition with China?

Jonathan A.

Czin Realistically, it seems the United States should expect very little from Europe on China, given the strains in the transatlantic relationship.

Moreover, the Trump administration has taken big steps backward on many of the key issues where alignment had been deepening, rolling back some export controls of high technology, de-emphasizing human rights, and pulling back from Taiwan.

These two dynamics would seem to diminish the space for alignment on China policy.

That said, Ihave been struck that many European leaders have continued to say the right things about the challenge from China—such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s statement at the G7 about the risks created by China’s dominance of rare earth magnets.

While many U.S. policymakers and observers have been frustrated by Europe’s inhibitions about aligning more closely on China, at this point, Europe seems unlikely to revert to its more accommodating policy toward China.

Beijing—primarily through its own actions, most notably its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine—has just done too much to harden views across Europe.

That suggests that room remains for alignment between the United States and Europe on China issues whenever Washington does return to a more serious approach toward competition with China.

Daniel S.

Hamilton European countries share many U.S. concerns about China.

They are angry that Beijing supports Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and helps Moscow skirt Western sanctions.

They are frustrated by China’s cyberthefts, intellectual property assaults, poor implementation of its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations, and state-subsidized overcapacity in many industries.

They are concerned that Beijing could exploit its control over materials critical to Europe’s economy, and they are wary of Chinese investments in strategic European industries.

They are critical of China’s human rights abuses, its absorption of Hong Kong, its threatening stance toward Taiwan, and its contestation of maritime straits critical to Euro­pean trade.

EU leaders are troubled by China’s $350 billion trade surplus with the bloc.

The July 2025 EU-China summit was tense; the only result was a joint statement  on climate change.

Nonetheless, transatlantic alignment on China policy remains difficult, in part because the 27 EU member states do not always agree.

Many have become China hawks, but some continue to prioritize economic opportunity.

Moreover, imports from China have become critically important  to European economies.

Europeans are also concerned that Chinese producers shut out of the U.S. market could dump their products in Europe.

Michael E.

O’Hanlon To begin with a negative, the United States should not want, and should certainly not expect, much direct military help from Europe in any conflict against China.

But the United States should be able to hope that European allies could handle European security crises largely on their own while American military forces were focused on conflict in Asia.

In the current context, for example, this task would mean keeping Ukraine afloat and sovereign while also protecting NATO’s eastern flanks, especially in the small and vulnerable Baltic region, without much American help for a stretch of time.

Also, following what Icalled (in my 2019 book, “ The Senkaku Paradox ”) a strategy of integrated deterrence, similar to what former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin later advocated at the Department of Defense with that same phrase, Europe should continue to monitor—and to mitigate—its economic and strategic dependencies on China.

The goal should be to avoid vulnerability to Chinese blackmail in a security crisis, and to be in a position to join with Washington in inflicting economic punishment against China in the event of a war in the Western Pacific.

Tools of economic warfare may be among the most consequential for ending the conflict on acceptable terms; in this regard, we need to have escalation dominance over Beijing as an alliance.

Also, perhaps Iam daydreaming, but it would be wonderful if creative geostrategic minds in Europe could help find a formula that Taiwan and China could both accept for future “reunification”—at least through some kind of commonwealth arrangement.

Iam not comfortable blithely assuming that we can simply manage the Taiwan question with our current policies and policy tools (though Isupport the policy of dual deterrence as the least-bad option for the foreseeable future).

Since they are seen as having less historical baggage on the issue, European countries may be better positioned than the United States to catalyze this debate when the timing is right.

Susan A.

Thornton The most important issue for the United States and Europe to work together on with respect to China is how to handle the unprecedented nature of China’s competitive manufacturing colossus in a globalized economy.

The United States and Europe, the two largest economies, should mount a joint effort at remaking global trade, finance, and corporate governance rules in order to lay the foundation for reduced conflicts of interest and protectionism, more distributed growth, and accountability for negative externalities.

These are not only related to China and will certainly impinge on domestic governance issues, whether in a democratic or non-democratic system.

States will have to sacrifice some sovereignty and bear dependency risks for the sake of a healthy global economy, as they have been doing since the advent of modern commerce.

Neither the United States nor China is moving in this direction at the moment, so the hope would be that Europe could remain a strong standard-bearer for globalization (which will not be rolled back successfully, despite myriad current pronouncements) and work with others to build a consensus around rules and fairness.

Economic exchange is fundamentally a win-win interaction that also gives actors a stake in continuing relations.

We need more globalization, not less, but we also need commitments to better rules and better enforcement—and better diplomacy.

My hope would be that Europe will continue to lead and insist on this.

Tara Varma Europe must right-size the China challenge, both in the context of its evolving relationship to the United States, as well as independently from the United States.

The profound transformation of the transatlantic relationship has raised questions about the credibility of the U.S. security guarantee to Europe.

In the context of increased strategic competition, Europe understands it cannot afford to simply replace its security dependency on Washington with a similar dependency on another country.

Therefore, the United States must prepare for a Europe that acts on China in ways that may or may not converge with the United States.

For instance, EU digital regulations could lead to a ban on TikTok, with little to no coordination with Washington.

Despite transatlantic divergences on China, the EU and the United States had previously managed to reach a common assessment on the People’s Republic of China’s strategic trajectory, which was partly developed during the EU-U.S. dialogues on China, the last of which was held in September 2024.

These exchanges, which were meant to establish a common plan of action on China, haven’t yet resumed under the Trump 2 administration.

As strategic competition in the U.S.-EU-China triangle intensifies, it remains in both the United States’ and the EU’s interest to share that perspective and to define policy on China on that basis.

Thomas Wright The United States should want Europe to stand up for its own interests vis-à-vis China and to work together in a unified way through the European Union.

Europe has taken a more competitive position toward China—not as a favor to the United States, but because it is in its interest to do so and because Beijing has played its hand so ineptly.

Europe and the United States won’t always agree on every aspect of China policy, but if Europe is united and strategic in its approach, Washington and Brussels will be broadly aligned.

If they are divided and incoherent, then we will see a significant transatlantic divergence.

There are some areas in which the United States should work more closely with Europeans.

Take two exampl

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