2025 deficit drops slightly to $1.78 trillion
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for October 17, 2025:
Pentagon funding bill blocked as shutdown continues.
Grijalva still waiting to get sworn in.
Republicans unveil new redistricting plan in North Carolina
DEFICIT. There was a lot more red ink for the feds in 2025 - but the federal deficit fell slightly from a year ago. The Treasury Department reported Thursday that Uncle Sam ran a deficit of $1.775 trillion in Fiscal Year 2025, down $41 billion from a year earlier. That happened because of a record $198 billion surplus in the month of September.
NUMBERS. Let’s give you the basic numbers to chew on:
2025 Revenue - $5.235 trillion ($4.918 trillion in 2024).
2025 Spending- $7.010 trillion ($6.734 trillion in 2024).
2025 Deficit - $1.775 trillion ($1.816 trillion in 2024).
YEAR OVER YEAR.
Revenues up $316 billion.
Spending up $275 billion.
Deficit down $41 billion.
TARIFFS. You can argue that one main reason the deficit dropped in FY 2025 was because of a big jump in tariff revenues. The U.S. collected $195 billion in import duties, up from $77 billion in 2024. (Higher taxes can help lower the deficit - what a concept!)
INTEREST. The most depressing number is how much we are now spending each year just to pay off interest on the federal debt. That figure hit $970 billion, up from $882 billion. Remember, $970 billion is more than we spend on the Pentagon budget each year. (Narrator: That’s just nuts.)
BOTTOM LINE. Deficits of this size are unsustainable. Something has to be done to either 1) rein in spending or 2) cut spending and raise taxes.
WHITHER DOGE. Obviously, the Department of Government Efficiency effort didn’t have much of an impact in Fiscal Year 2025 - if overall federal spending went up. For example, spending at the Department of Agriculture went up this fiscal year by over 10 percent, from $203 billion to $227 billion.
CUTBACKS. You could see where some of the DOGE cuts may have had an impact. Spending at the Department of Labor dropped from $65 billion to $50 billion. The State Department went from $37 billion to $28 billion.
IMMIGRATION. But those savings were offset by increases elsewhere. Spending at the Department of Homeland Security in 2025 jumped from $89 billion to $115 billion.
DUPREE RULE OF THUMB. As I have said for many years - both parties like to spend money. They just like to spend it on different things.
CHICAGO. Speaking of the Department of Homeland Security, the ongoing unrest in Chicago boiled over before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) used a meeting of that panel to complain about the deployment of National Guard troops - from outside Illinois - to his home state.
DURBIN. “We need to hear from Secretary Kristi Noem,” Durbin said, as he demanded an oversight hearing with Noem about the ongoing immigration crackdown in the Chicago area - which has prompted street battles between federal agents and local residents. She refuses to meet with me and Senator Duckworth.”
DRAGNET. We all know there is something wrong with the stories and scenes of U.S. citizens being scooped up by armed masked agents - or by groups of what almost look like shock troops.
BAY STATE. “It’s outrageous,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), as she pointed to stories detailing how dozens and dozens of Americans have been summarily arrested by immigration agents.
UNREST. I’ll say this again - my fear is that some of these street scenes will descend into street violence. Democrats worry that’s what the Trump Administration wants, in order to send in troops to various American cities. “Don’t take the bait,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) constantly warns.
NO KINGS. I’ve also been alarmed by the words used in recent days by Republicans and White House officials about the big marches set for this weekend - labeling the participants as terrorists and Communists. We all know it only takes one little incident to change the course of history.
SPEAKER. “We call it the Hate America rally,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said several times this week. “Let’s see who shows up for that. I bet you see pro Hamas supporters. I bet you see Antifa types. I bet you see the Marxists in full display, the people who don’t want to stand and defend the foundational truths of this Republic.”
TRUMP DOCTRINE. President Trump has long talked about cracking down on drug cartels. And with U.S. military planes and ships now focused very clearly on Venezuela, some GOP lawmakers in Congress seem more than ready to have Trump take out Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan leader.
CONGRESS. “Maduro is a narcoterrorist,” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), as lawmakers from Florida have led the calls for Maduro’s ouster. “The people of Venezuela and our hemisphere will be better off once he is out of power.”
DRUG BOATS. Trump has made no apologies for the recent U.S. attacks on supposed drug cartel shipments in the Caribbean Sea, with video showing boats being blown out of the water. “We’ve had a couple of days where there isn’t a boat to be found,” Trump said, clearly pleased with the results.
CALLE OCHO. “The President is not willing to sit idly by while these narco-cartels poison our youth,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL). “We must use all means necessary to stop drugs from touching our country,” added Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL).
BIG SKY. It’s not just Florida lawmakers seemingly itching for a fight. “Something has to be done and President Trump has taken the fight to these narcoterrorists,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) told Fox News on Thursday.
STRATEGY. Trump was asked this week why he had shifted to a military solution. His answer was that the Coast Guard strategy of stopping drug boats in the Caribbean just didn’t seem to make any difference.
REGIME CHANGE. Democrats started sounding the alarm yesterday about military action. “The American people do not want war in Venezuela, said Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) ““We have no idea who he’s killing,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said of Trump’s boat attacks. “He has no legal authority to do this.”
RADIO SILENCE. Top Democrats in Congress said they have not been briefed by the Pentagon or White House, as some raised concerns about a Bay of Pigs, 2025 version. “It’s typical of this administration,” said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. “They try to just go at it alone on everything.”
MEXICO. In President Trump’s first term, there were reports that he pushed for military strikes against cartel operations and leaders in Mexico. It won’t surprise me for that to be back on the table soon - especially if Trump feels like his pressure campaign has worked against Venezuela.
REDISTRICTING. Another state with a GOP-led legislature is ready to make changes to its Congressional map, trying to keep Republicans in control of Congress after the 2026 midterms. North Carolina Republicans want to squeeze one Black Democrat, Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), who holds a district centered in the eastern part of the state.
NC-1 MAP. The new GOP plan would shift Davis’s home out of his district, and add in a bunch of more reliable Republican counties. That would make NC-1 go from a Trump +3 district to maybe as much as a Trump +12 district. The plan is to hold a vote in the legislature next week.
TAR HEEL. Most of you won’t know Don Davis. He has tried hard to plow a middle ground in Congress. For example, one progressive score of House votes rates Davis as the 8th most conservative Democrat in the House. Will that help save him? I’m not so sure - but Davis has certainly tried to stay out of the liberal left lane.
DAVIS. “As we look at new congressional districts, I am considering every option, drawing on my local roots, experience in the military, and commitment to education,” Davis said yesterday, noting that voters feel Washington is ‘broken.’
LAST ELECTION. Just a few years ago, North Carolina’s delegation was split 7-7. But in 2023, Republicans forced through a GOP gerrymander, and turned that into a 10-4 GOP advantage. Now they hope to make it 11-3.
SCOTUS. Now just imagine what other changes Republicans could make if the Supreme Court does away with majority-minority districts in the South. Redistricting is definitely a big story for the 2026 midterms right now.
DEFENSE. Still deadlocked over a government shutdown, Senate Republicans tried something different before going home on Thursday afternoon. They forced a vote to begin work on a Pentagon funding bill that’s already been approved by the House. But the outcome was the same, as Democrats used a filibuster to stop the bill.
SWITCHES. 3 Senate Democrats broke ranks to vote for the start of debate on the Pentagon funding measure: Fetterman PA, Cortez Masto NV, and Shaheen NH. No Republicans supported that filibuster.
MILITARY PAY. Approval of this bill would take away the uncertainty about paychecks for the troops - but the filibuster only opened Democrats to new attacks from the GOP. “Their continued political games are going to deeply hurt our brave men and women in uniform,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).
FETTERMAN. “My YES was because our military deserves to be paid,” said Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), who has drawn the ire of many more liberal activists in his own party. “I will continue to vote to end this shutdown and reopen our federal government,” the Pennsylvania Senator added.
FUNDING. The next paycheck for soldiers and sailors is slated to go out near the end of the month. Will there be a government shutdown deal by then? I’m not so sure. It may be that the White House will be forced to find some other budgetary end-around on funding.
NOT LEGAL. I’m still not convinced that the White House plan to switch money into troop payment accounts is legal. Most people don’t understand how money is approved by Congress. There isn’t just one big pot of money for the Pentagon which a President can move around as he pleases.
SHUTDOWN. It was only a 3-day work week for Senators, as they went home yesterday without making any headway to end the government shutdown. I have to say that members of both parties seemed a bit grumpy as they left town - there was nothing new to say about what was happening.
DEMS. The day began with some talk that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) had hatched a plan to get a Senate vote on extending the Obama health law subsidies. She was mobbed as she arrived for the first vote of the day - but didn’t really have much to offer reporters.
NASHUA. “We’re talking about a lot of options, throwing out ideas, as are a lot of members,” Shaheen said. “I think there are a lot of options to get out of the shutdown, and unfortunately, it starts with people talking to each other.”
SCHUMER. Democrats have made that one of their main points. “We want to sit in a room and have a negotiation,” said Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). “We still have not heard crickets,” complained Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.
END GAME. Where is this going? I still think the most likely scenario is a cave by the Democrats - with some sort of fig leaf for a Senate vote on extending the Obama health law subsidies. I don’t see how any compromise plan could be accepted by the GOP House.
GRIJALVA. Her office is ready. The sign is up. But Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) still can’t get sworn in. As I wrote in my column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, this is a dangerous situation for our country. The Speaker of the House is preventing a duly-elected member of Congress from being seated. That is not how it works.
LONGWORTH. “It’s kind of like someone saying, here’s a car, and it doesn’t have an engine,” said Grijalva, as she gave a video tour of her new office - which she can’t staff until she is sworn in. Here’s what’s hanging outside of her Capitol Hill office.
TODAY. The House meets this afternoon at 2 pm in a pro forma session. That was what Speaker Johnson used on April 2 to give the oath to two Republicans from Florida - who had been elected the day before. Grijalva won her race back on September 23. Not swearing her in is a terrible precedent.
FLIP SIDE. Should a Speaker be able to block a member of Congress from being sworn in? Be careful how you answer that question. Because if you think that is okay, it will get used against your party some day.
MESSAGE. “Speaker Johnson is hiding behind smug excuses to dismiss and silence our district,” Grijalva said Thursday. We’ll see if she shows up on the House floor today. She has privileges of the floor as a Member-elect.
MCCONNELL. We almost had a bad situation yesterday. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was walking to the subway train when he ran into some demonstrators. As one woman walked alongside, the 83-year-old McConnell suddenly took a bad step and fell. This is what it looked like in the video shot by the group which was heckling McConnell.
BLUEGRASS. Thankfully, McConnell got up and was fine. I will say from my vantage point in recent months, the long time Kentucky GOP Senator is not as stable on his feet as he used to be. He is getting old. In fact, McConnell almost took a header on the Senate floor last month.
RUSSELL BUILDING. Some of you will probably ask - what the heck are protesters doing getting so close to McConnell right there? It’s an interesting situation. The House and Senate office buildings are open to any member of the general public - and that includes people who might be protesting.
BASEMENT. In all three Senate office buildings, there are almost always people who are chirping at Senators as they walk to the Capitol. You often see people from Code Pink or union members giving Senators an earful. But you don’t see many reporters chasing Senators there. Why is that?
STAKEOUTS. Just about 30 feet from where McConnell stumbled, there is a designated stakeout spot for TV cameras in the Russell basement. We have agreed over the years to stick to that - rather than creating a situation where reporters and cameras are chasing Senators.
OUTSIDE. For example, we have a spot outside the Capitol - known as the ‘Senate Lamppost’ - where TV cameras can gather. But those cameras are not allowed to chase any Senators. Reporters and producers can walk with Senators - but not cameras. This is what it looked like outside yesterday.
MUSE OF HISTORY. October 17, 1814. With the Capitol in ruins, the House on this date debated whether to buy the personal library of Thomas Jefferson - and use that to establish a new Library of Congress. Opponents argued against the cost, and some of the books - like the works of Voltaire. The House voted 91-47 against a plan to buy just some of Jefferson’s library, and then rejected an effort to delay any action until the next session of Congress.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House has no votes scheduled before October 20.
The Senate is back on Monday.
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Document ID: gop-backs-trump-amid-possible-military