Shutdown likely to extend into next week
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for October 16, 2025:
Supreme Court wrestles with race-based Congressional districts.
House Speaker doesn’t think restraining orders are serious.
Arizona Democrat still waiting to take her House seat.
SHUTDOWN. What a waste this week has been on Capitol Hill. Senators will head home later today with no deal in sight to end a government shutdown - as this political impasse seems ready to roll into next week. There has been absolutely no evidence of any progress in finding a deal to approve a temporary funding bill.
VERBAL JOUSTING. Wednesday at the U.S. Capitol was yet another parade of blame game news conferences by both parties. “The entire country would like to know when Democrats are going to end their tantrum and reopen the government,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
SAVE HEALTHCARE. “House Republicans need to get back to work,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as Democrats rallied on the Capitol steps. They again demanded that the GOP help extend expiring insurance subsidies under the Obama health law.
CAPITOL QUAGMIRE. The bottom line remains the same. Republicans say they won’t negotiate until Democrats vote to reopen the government. Democrats say they won’t vote to reopen the government until Republicans negotiate. And so, barring some miracle today, the shutdown will go into next week.
VOTES. Nothing changed on Wednesday as the Senate again fell short of the 60 votes needed to force action on a House-passed 7-week funding bill. That gets one more vote today, which will mark the tenth time that Democrats - and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) - have filibustered a government funding measure.
DEFENSE. Senate Republicans will throw a new item into the mix today, forcing a procedural vote on a House-passed bill to fund the Pentagon for 2026. That will also give the GOP the opportunity to complain about how the shutdown hurts soldiers in the military.
MILITARY PAY. The White House on Wednesday rolled out the official notice of how it is shifting money inside the Pentagon in order to fund the paychecks of soldiers and sailors. I didn’t sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I’m not sure this bookkeeping move is constitutional.
31 U.S.C. §1301(a). There were very few details offered by the White House. It looks like they are moving money from RDT&E (Research Development Test & Evaluation) into military pay accounts. The budget memo cited one specific federal law which contains a lot of government mumbo-jumbo.
SPENDING. This is super complicated, but this Trump move basically blows a hole in the authority of Congress to determine how money is spent. The Founding Fathers did not create a system with the Executive in charge. The Legislative Branch was Article I for a reason.
MESSAGE. Democrats aren’t saying much at all about this constitutional question, because they know it’s a political loser to argue against paying the troops. But trust me - how this is done matters. If President Trump can ignore Congress, then so can President AOC. You don’t want that.
TIME FRAME. Regardless, it doesn’t really sound like this move will cover military pay for very long. “If the Democrats continue to vote to keep the government closed,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, “then we know that U.S. troops are going to risk missing a check at the end of this month.”
PENTAGON PRESS. What’s going on at the Pentagon with respect to the news media is something that should concern every American - no matter your own political beliefs. On Wednesday, officials confiscated press badges of reporters who refused to agree to a new reporting policy which could make the simple art of journalism into a criminal act.
BADGES. “Oct. 15, 2025 is a dark day for press freedom that raises concerns about a weakening U.S. commitment to transparency in governance, to public accountability at the Pentagon and to free speech for all,” the Pentagon Press Association said in a statement.
AT ISSUE. What’s the problem here? The Pentagon wanted reporters to sign a document which basically said that you won’t ask anyone for any information about anything related to the military which hasn’t been officially released.
STENOGRAPHERS. In other words, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wants reporters to only write stories from official information - not using any unapproved sources. (Narrator: That’s not how reporting works.)
NO THANKS. Even the Daily Caller refused to sign. “They added one provision that should not be acceptable to any freedom-loving American: a ban on asking for information from non-approved sources,” said Neil Patel, the Daily Caller’s Publisher. “This essentially neuters press coverage of the Pentagon.”
FOX NEWS. All of the major TV networks refused to abide by the rules. Fox News legal analyst Jonathan Turley called them ‘unduly restrictive and unprecedented.’
MEDIA. Most reporters immediately understand what’s at risk here. Most people who have never been a reporter probably don’t. This isn’t about reporters wandering around the Pentagon. It’s about basic reporting. Tell me what you think.
FLORIDA MAN. I don’t expect party leaders to immediately run away from one of their own members because of ethics troubles. But House Speaker Mike Johnson sent an odd note on Wednesday when he was asked about the problems of Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL), who has a lengthy list of ethics issues.
RESTRAINING ORDER. A judge in Florida this week issued a restraining order against Mills, telling him to stay away from his ex-girlfriend. Why? He allegedly threatened to release nude photos and videos of the woman.
SGT. SCHULTZ. “I have not heard or looked into the details,” Speaker Johnson told reporters, as he made clear what Mills may have done to the reigning Miss United States was not a priority. “Let’s talk about things that are really serious,” Johnson added.
PROBLEMS. In his second term, Mills has more than enough issues to deserve attention from GOP leaders. He seemingly roughed up another girlfriend at his apartment earlier this year. The Florida Republican already faces a probe by the House Ethics Committee about his finances and campaign fundraising.
SUPREME COURT. I learned a long time ago not to make predictions about Supreme Court cases. But it sure seemed to me that the conservative majority on the Court might be ready to roll back the use of race to draw congressional district maps which favor Black and Hispanic candidates under the Voting Rights Act.
BAYOU STATE. At issue yesterday was a majority-minority district in Louisiana, which that state had to draw under orders from a federal court. This case could lead to the end of those districts - which might help the GOP get rid of more than a dozen Black Democrats in the Deep South.
SECTION TWO. “Race-based remedies are permissible for a period of time, sometimes for a long period of time,” Justice Brett Kavanaugh said at one point during arguments. But Kavanaugh pointedly noted that those remedies “should not be indefinite and should have a end point.”
DEMS. You could sense after the arguments that Black Democrats in Congress feel like what’s coming down the tracks may not be a very good outcome for their party. “The right to vote — and to be represented — is on the line,” said Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD).
PLAZA. There were some lively demonstrations outside the Court yesterday, with many people holding signs bearing the photograph of the late Rep. John Lewis (D-GA). Lewis was badly beaten by police in Selma, Alabama in 1965, sparking a furor which helped push Congress to approve the Voting Rights Act.
GRIJALVA. At the same time as that rally at the Supreme Court, Democrats joined with Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), demanding once again that she take the oath of office in the U.S. House. “I’m ready to get to work,” Grijalva said, as she stood with fellow Democrats from Arizona outside the Capitol.
LAME. Democrats ridiculed Republicans for refusing to swear in Grijalva. “We’re tired of Speaker Johnson’s lame excuses,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). called House Speaker Mike Johnson’s excuses ‘lame.’
EPSTEIN. Others focused on the impact of Grijalva’s arrival. “Speaker Johnson is protecting pedophiles,” added Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), noting that Grijalva would be the 218th signature for the Epstein Files discharge petition.
RESPONSE. Speaker Johnson’s reply dripped with derision. “I say bless her heart,” Johnson said in an interview on Fox News, using a southern put-down. “She’s a Representative-elect. She doesn’t know how it works around here.” Grijalva later called the Speaker’s remarks ‘patronizing.’
BUSINESS. Johnson continues to say that he won’t swear in Grijalva until the shutdown is over. But remember - Speaker Johnson swore in two Republicans from Florida on April 2 when there was no legislative business.
THIS YEAR. Three lawmakers have won special elections this year. All three were sworn in the day after their victories - without any official certificate of election. Grijalva has her certificate - she is now at 23 days and counting.
TIMELINE. What is the average time between a special election and swearing-in for a member of the U.S. House?
119th Congress - average 1 day
118th Congress - 10 days
117th Congress - 12 days
116th Congress - 13 days
115th Congress - 16 days
BAD MOJO. I’m going to say this again very clearly. This move to delay the seating of Grijalva is a dangerous precedent from the GOP. No Speaker of the House should be able to stop a legitimately elected member of Congress from taking the oath of office. And yet - that’s where we are.
CRAZY DAY. I’ll finish with a weird story from the Grijalva press conference. I got out there just after it began and my first move was to take a bunch of pictures of the group of lawmakers. I’ve been around long enough to know how to take photos - always standing behind the TV cameras and reporters.
STAFFER. But as soon as I started, a Congressional staffer - I can only assume with the office of an Arizona Democrat - started demanding to know who I was, and what I was doing. “I’m doing my job,” I said firmly, as the staffer kept bothering me while I was trying to take pictures of Grijalva.
POSTGAME. After the news conference ended, I was standing outside the ropes just sort of watching Grijalva do interviews. I heard someone say a couple of times, “Congressman Gosar. Congressman Gosar.”
GOSAR. Yep, one of my reporter colleagues thought I was an Arizona Republican Congressman, and wanted to ask me questions. Too bad my voice doesn’t work that well - I could really have said wild stuff, eh?
STATUS. You might remember how the cops demanded my ID a few months ago inside the Capitol, not convinced that I was a reporter. I also had someone confuse me for an Indiana Congressman. Maybe I need to start wearing an old fedora with a ‘PRESS’ badge on the hat.
MUSE OF HISTORY. October 16, 1837. On this date, President Van Buren signed a bill into law which approved $1.6 million for ‘the suppression of Indian hostilities.’ Also approved on this date was $248,500 for salaries and mileage of members of Congress, and $50,000 for stationery, fuel, printing and other expenses of the U.S. House.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House has no votes scheduled before October 20.
The Senate meets at 10 am.
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Document ID: shutdown-likely-to-extend-into-next-6ee